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Sunday, October 26, 2014

RETAIL INDUSTRY

Year 2011

According to ShopperTrak, Black Friday (November 25, 2011) sales in 2011 increased 6.6 percent to $11.4 billion compared with 2010, and traffic rose 5.1 percent. ShpperTrak founder Bill Martin said that shoppers were using web to narrow down the list of stores instead of "wandering from store to store".

According to ComScore Inc. report released on November 27, 2011, online sales soared 26 percent on the day after Thanksgiving from a year ago to $816 million. On the Thanksgiving Day (November 24, 2011), online sales rose 18 percent to $479 million as retailers offered promotions early on the websites. Last year (2010), the Cyber Monday was the biggest day of online shopping, with sales exceeding $1 billion. On November 27, 2011, bullish Chairman of ComScore Gian Fulgoni predicted another record-breaking Cyber Monday.

A survey released by National Retail Federation on November 27, 2011 showed that brick-and-mortars and websites together get 226 million shopper visits over the Thanksgiving weekend (Thursday through Sunday), up from 212 million in 2010. The average holiday shopper spent $398.62 in the 2011 Thanksgiving weekend, up from $365.34 in 2010 Thanksgiving weekend. Total spending reached an estimated $52.4 billion, according to the NRF survey conducted by BIGresearch Novmber 24 (Thursday) through November 26 (Saturday), 2011. The survey has 1.6 percent margin of error. According to the survey, almost one in four shoppers (24.4 percent) stood in line outside the stores at midnight on the Thanksgiving Day compared to 9.5 percent in 2010 and 2.2 percent in 2009, respectively. This year, some of the largest U.S retailers--Best Buy, Kohl's, Macy's, Target, Toys R Us and Walmart--were open at midnight on the Thanksgiving Day for the first time.

YEAR 2012

Americans spent approximately $59.1 billion during the four-day (November 22-25, 2012) Thanksgiving Holiday period (Thursday through Sunday), about 13% higher than the last year's $52.4 billion during comparable time period. The Black Friday (this year it was November 23, 2012) online sales reached a record, first time crossing the threshold of $1 billion, by rising 26% to $1.04 billion, according to ComScore Inc. report issued on November 25, 2012. This year's Thanksgiving Day sales also rose by a whopping 32% to $633 million.

Year 2013

This year's Thanksgiving weekend shopping spree didn't bring a positive dividend for the nation's retailers as National Retail Federation on December 1, 2013 estimated sales of $57.4 billion over the four-day (November 28-Dec 1, 2013: Thursday through Sunday) period of Thanksgiving weekend, a drop of 2.9 percent compared to the same period in 2012. The traffic was higher with 141 million unique visits compared to 139 million unique visits in 2012. However, average spending was lower--$407 in 2013 vs. $424 in 2012--because of expanded promotions and deep discounts. NRF Chief Executive Mathew Shay explained the drop in terms of a customer who is value focused and budget conscious. According to the NRF survey, conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics, 54.2 percent of the customers planned to shop in department stores, followed by 42.1 percent shopping online, while 38.9 percent in discount stores. This year many of the stores opened their doors in evening, and many of the door-busters began in the late afternoon.

Research firm ComScore reported on December 3, 2013 that the online sales on Cyber Monday (December 2, 2013) would be about $1.74 billion, up from $1.47 billion on Cyber Monday in 2012. Online sales will account for about 10 percent of total sales of $602.1 billion in combined November and December sales this year, a jump of about 3.9 percent compared to last year. ComScore figure doesn't include sales from mobile devices. This year many of the shoppers bought merchandise online using mobile gadgets.

For the year 2013, average shopper became more productive as reported by ShopperTrak survey released on December 23, 2013. For the week of December 16-22 (Mon-Sunday), 2013, the in-store traffic fell by 21.2% compared to the same period last year vs. sales declined by 3.1%. ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said that one way to measure whether shopper had become more efficient in shopping was average number of shops visited (3 to 3.5 in 2013 vs. 4.5 to 5 in 2008).

Analyzing the federal figures, National Retail Federation on January 14, 2014 estimated that sales rose 3.8% for November and December 2013 (November sales rose 3% and December sales rose 4.6%) compared to the same period in the previous year, a bit short of its earlier forecast of 3.9%, but better than 3.5% jump in 2012. However, to entice shoppers, retailers had to offer myriads of promotions and deep discounts, thus hurting margins. According to Ken Perkins, President of Retail Metrics LLC, fourth quarter profits would drop 0.7%, first such decline since a 6.7% drop in the second quarter of 2009 as the country had hit the trough and just started to climb back out of the worst recession in a generation. Perkins' figure was based on a survey of country's 120 retailers. NRF's estimate included online sales, but excluded sales at automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Year 2014

Retail Watchdog Predicts More than 4 Percent Boost During 2014 Holidays
National Retail Federation estimated on October 6, 2014 that the retail sales during 2014 holidays would increase by 4.1 percent compared to last year's increase of 3.1 percent. The average annual increase of retail sales over the past 10 years is about 2.9 percent. Last year, NRF predicted 3.9 percent growth during holidays, but the actuals came out to be 3.1 percent.

Holiday Sales Fall During Thanksgiving This Year
The four-day (November 27-30, 2014) sales spanning Thanksgiving Thursday through Sunday this year fell 11 percent compared to the same period last year, according to the National Retail Federation. This year the four-day sales were estimated at $50.9 billion, based on a sample of 4,600 shoppers in a survey conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics for the NRF. The federation president, Mathew Shay put a positive spin on the significant decline, stressing on the fact that the average shopper might be feeling economically secure this year and harbor less desire to rush to the stores during a crowded Thanksgiving weekend. The National Retail Federation survey also illustrated
* A significant shift in buying pattern to web as the store traffic this year dropped 5.2 percent to 134 million
* A downward trend in average spending by shoppers from $407.02 last year to $380.95 this year
A big surprise of the federation survey was its findings of flat online sales which didn't match with findings by other researchers. Adobe estimated that the Thanksgiving Day online sales this year were $1.33 billion, up 25 percent, and the Black Friday online sales were $2.4 billion, up 24 percent compared to 2013. IBM Digital Analytics estimated the corresponding boost in sales of 14.3 percent (Thanksgiving Day 2014 VS. 2013) and 9.5 percent (Black Friday 2014 VS. 2013), respectively. Meanwhile, another weekend report indicated cannibalization as many of the national retail chains opened for the third year in a row on the Thanksgiving Day, grabbing foot traffic from the Black Friday. According to ShopperTrak, founded by Bill Martin, Thanksgiving Day traffic registered a whopping increase of 27 percent from a year ago, only to have Black Friday to witness a decline of 5.6 percent in foot traffic. However, the combined sales for the Thanksgiving Day and the Black Friday, according to ShopperTrak, this year totaled $12.29 billion, a meager 0.5 percent drop from the last year.


Year 2015

Retail Watchdog Predicts 3.7 Percent Boost During 2015 Holidays
National Retail Federation estimated on October 8, 2015 that the retail sales during 2015 holidays would increase by 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion compared to last year's increase of 4.1 percent. The average annual increase of retail sales over the past 10 years is about 2.9 percent. However, NRF expects online sales to grow 6 percent to 8 percent to $105 billion. Online sales grew last year's holiday period (November and December) by 5.8 percent.

Black Friday Online Sales Heat up
A shopping tracking firm, Adobe, reported on November 27, 2015 that this year's Black Friday (November 27, 2015) online sales jumped by a respected 14 percent compared to that of 2014 to $2.72 billion. The firm also reported that this year's online sales on the Thanksgiving Day were $1.73 billion, a 25 percent increase from last year's Thanksgiving Day online sales. According to Adobe, nearly 57 percent of $1.73 billion on the Thanksgiving Day came from mobile devices. Smartphones and tablets account for 37 percent of online sales between midnight and 11AM on Black Friday. Nearly 60 percent of American shoppers had already begun holiday shopping since November 10, 2015, according to the National Retail Federation.

In-Store Sales Fall on both Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday
Continuing trend that had begun few years ago, the in-store sales on the Thanksgiving Day (November 26, 2015) and Black Friday (November 27, 2015) fell this year nearly by 10 percent to $1.8 billion (from $2 billion) and $10.4 billion (from $11.6 billion), respectively, according to the retailing research firm ShopperTrak. Part of the reasons for declining in-store sales during Thanksgiving Weekend is retailers' elongation of holiday sales timeline, according to ShopperTrak Chief Revenue Officer Kevin Kearns. The ShopperTrak survey was released on November 29, 2015.

NRF Changes its Survey Methodology, Gets out of Individual Day Forecasts
This year National Retail Federation changed its Thanksgiving holiday survey questions and methodology, rendering year-to-year comparison irrelevant. Pam Goodfellow, principal analyst at Prosper Insights and Analytics that conducts the survey, has said that the change is needed to capture the shift in consumer taste and choice. NRF is also out of forecasting a single-day sales such as Black Friday sales figures.

Forrester Research Predicts Double Digit Online Sales Gain
Forrester Research's prediction about 2015 holiday season is that online sales will jump by 11 percent to $95.5 billion.

Cyber Monday Registers a Record in Online Sales
This year's Cyber Monday (November 30, 2015) set a record in web sales as consumers made a brisk purchase of a whopping $2.98 billion, up 12 percent from last year's Cyber Monday, according to Adobe Digital Index. Brick-and-Mortar retailers saw their online sales increase by a whopping 18 percent, outpacing the sales growth of online-only retailers. According to Adobe's Tamara Gaffney, principal analyst, Dallas-Fort Worth (43 percent), Chicago (23 percent) and Los Angeles (26 percent) markets had some of the highest online sales growths. According to Adobe, smartphones and tablets account for 37 percent of online sales between midnight and 11AM on Black Friday compared to 26 percent last year and 21 percent in 2013.

IBM Watson Estimates More than Half Web Traffic to be Mobile
According to IBM Watson Trend Report issued on November 30, 2015, the 2015 Black Friday (November 27, 2015) turned out to be a trend-setter with mobile traffic (57.2 percent compared to 49.6 percent last year) exceeding desktop traffic for the first time.

Research Firm ComScore Reports Record Cyber Monday Sales
Research firm comScore on December 2, 2015 reported that Cyber Monday (December 1, 2015) sales had registered a whopping $3.11 billion, a record, up by 21 percent. The boost was prompted by 53 percent surge in orders placed through mobile devices.

Lackluster Holiday Report Card for Retailers
National Retail Federation on January 15, 2016 issued a not-so-good report card for nation's retailers for this past holiday season. The sales registered a meager 3 percent growth in November-December 2015 compared to year ago November-December period to $626.14 billion. On October 8, 2015, NRF forecast a growth of 3.7 percent in the past holidays. The primary drag, according to the venerable group, was the warm weather in the much of the US that had forced retailers to mark deeper discount to stimulate sales of winter cloths. Also, there was deflationary pressure on electronic items. One of the bright spot this past holiday season was online sales that grew by 9 percent to $105 billion, a 15 percent of the total retail pie. In its October 8, 2015, pre-holiday estimate, NRF predicted online sales to grow between 6 percent and 8 percent.

YEAR 2016

Rosy Holiday Sales Forecasted by Retail Group
The Retail industry group National Retail Federation, or NRF, on October 4, 2016 issued an optimistic projection of for the combined November and December sales growth. The estimated sales will grow by 3.6 percent, according to the NRF, to $655.8 billion, more than last year's combined November-December growth rate of 3 percent. This year's projected growth rate is higher than the 10-year historic growth rate of 2.5 percent and 3.4 percent average annual growth rate since the end of recession in 2009. However, the growths projected by various retail groups often don't materialize as last year's actual holiday growth came almost 0.7 percent below the projected growth rate of 3.7 percent. NRF's figure does not include auto, restaurants and gasoline sales, but includes online and non-store sales. NRF estimated total non-stores sales to grow by 7 percent to 10 percent to $117 billion.

Online Sales Soar on Black Friday
The changing behavior of how shoppers make their purchase has contributed to a significant uplift of online sales for both the Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday in 2016. According to Adobe, this year's Black Friday online sales hit a record of $3.34 billion, a 21.6 percent increase, mostly fueled by a whopping 33 percent growth to a record-setting $1.2 in sales ordered from the mobile devices. Online sales also hit records both on the Thanksgiving Day as well as the day earlier. Combined Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, according to Adobe, online sales increased a whopping 21.6 percent to $5.27 billion. The online sales of $1.93 billion on the Thanksgiving Day this year, though jumped 11.5 percent compared to 2015, fell short of Adobe estimate of $2 billion.

Door-Busters Drive Massive Traffic
Deep discounts and milder weather combined had desired effect on the retailers' topline as shoppers opened wallet during the Thanksgiving weekend as National Retail Federation on November 27, 2016 estimated that average dollar volume this year rang about $289, although $10 lower than last year's $299.

First Data: Retail Spending up, but at a Slower Rate
First Data on December 16, 2016 released its research findings for the timespan of October 29, 2016 (Saturday) through December 12, 2016 (Monday). The data are captured from 40 percent card transactions, but exclude cash transactions. The key findings are:
* Relative to last year's growth of 2.4 percent in the comparable period, this year's growth was 2 percent.
* During this time, online sales grew 9 percent this year compared to store sales of 0.1 percent.
* The average spend amount for the 45-day period this year was $70.28 compared to last year's $69.34.
* Four of the seven segments tracked by First Data registered growth this year: (1) Building Materials; (2) Electronics and Appliances; (3) Furniture and Home Furnishings; and (4) Health and Personal Care. The biggest decrease (2.8 percent) was in General Merchandising Category, with Department Store sub-category getting hammered by a whopping 8.8 percent.

YEAR 2017

Online is the King of Thanksgiving Week
National Retail Federation said on November 28, 2017 that more people had shopped this year from the Thanksgiving Day (November 23, 2017) through Cyber Monday (November 27, 2017)--174 million vs. 164 million--and they spent an average of $335.47, but the preferred platform for the shoppers was online that surprised probably none. According to NRF,
* About 58 million shoppers did their purchases only online
* About 51 million only in stores
* About 65 million in both
However, the most prized customers are the ones who shopped both in-store and online as they, on the average, spent $82 more than that of only online shoppers and $49 more than only in-store shoppers.
What is more of a trend these days is there is no let-up in shopping just because it's a holiday because of smartphones. According to Adobe Analytics, online shopping averaged $1 billion everyday in November 2017, and during the five days from the Thanksgiving Day (November 23, 2017) through Cyber Monday (November 27, 2017), it totaled $19.6 billion, an all time record.

YEAR 2018

Thanksgiving Weekend Give Retailers Healthy In-store Traffic and Outstanding Digital Growth
Adobe Analytics reported on November 23, 2018 that this year's Thanksgiving Day (November 22, 2018) was another busy retail day with a respectable in-store traffic, who switched between eating turkeys and shopping, and strong online purchases. Online purchases this Thanksgiving Day (November 22, 2018) had its own record of $3.7 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, with purchases from smartphones breaking the threshold of $1 billion for the first time. Last year, $1 billion mark for smartphone was been breached on Cyber Monday.

Shoppers Splurge with New Vigor
National Retail Federation on November 27, 2018 estimated that more than 165 million shoppers hit brick-and-mortar stores between the Thanksgiving Day (November 22) and Cyber Monday (November 26), spending on the average $313. Both numbers are down from last year's comparable figures of 174 million shoppers and $335 average spend, respectively. However, the premier retail trade group still believes that consumers will up their spending by 4.8 percent during this year's holiday period compared to last year's. In addition, NRF issued a breakdown of shopping patterns:

* About 21 percent shopped only in stores
* About 25 percent shopped only online
* About 56 percent shopped both in stores and online

According to NRF estimate, this year's holiday sales will increase 4.3 to 4.8 percent

According to Adobe's November 27, 2018, update, a record $7.9 billion was spent online on Cyber Monday (November 26, 2018), a whopping 19.3 percent increase from last year's comparable figures.

According to ShopperTrak, the traffic to shopping centers and brick-and-mortar stores fell a combined 1 percent this year for the Thanksgiving Day (November 22, 2018) and Black Friday (November 23, 2018), with Black Friday traffic falling by 1.7 percent. One of the reasons this year's traffic fell on the Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday was due to consumer's beginning of shopping earlier this year.

YEAR 2019

Retail Industry Group Forecasts Robust Holiday Sales Growth
National Retail Federation on October 4, 2019 issued an optimistic estimate of retail sector growth in the November-December period of this year (2019). The estimate ranges from 3.8% to 4.2%, stronger compared to last year's tepid 2.1% growth in the comparable period. Last year's growth was lower than 5-year average of 3.7%.

Rosy Forecasts for Online Sales
As retailers are gearing up for the Black Friday (November 29, 2019), online sales have been bumper  marks throughout the month of November as each of the first 27 days of November 2019 clocked more than a billion dollar in revenue, including $2 billion on eight days, according to Adobe Analytics. This year, too, online sales will follow the same trends of past several years of grabbing market shares from brick and mortars, and are expected to rise by 14.1%. Adobe Analytics forecasted that online sales would be up on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday, this year Cyber Monday falling in December and projected to bring in a record revenue of $9.4 billion.

Black Friday Online Sales Hit a Record
Adobe Analytics reported on November 30, 2019 that the Black Friday (November 29, 2019) had turned out to be a bonanza for online sales this year as consumers had spent a record $7.4 billion sitting from the comfort of their homes and buying with few clicks. Adobe's estimate of a record online sales on this year's Black Friday fell short of online sales in last year's Cyber Monday that came out to be around $7.9 billion. This year's Cyber Monday online sales are expected to be around another record-setter, $9.4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.
However, the Black Friday sales, despite hitting a record for online segment, contracted this year by 1.6%, according to RetailNext, and the traffic fell by 2.1%.
According to National Retail Federation, this year's combined November and December sales will increase 4% to $730 billion. Adobe Analytics projected that online sales this year's November and December will total about $143.7 billion, a jump of almost 14.9% compared to the last year.

Record 190 million Shoppers Are in Buying Spree
National Retail Federation on December 3, 2019 estimated that a record 189.6 million shoppers made purchases in the five-day period from the Thanksgiving Day (November 28, 2019) to Cyber Monday (December 2, 2019), an increase of 14% relative to the comparable period last year. According to the NRF, some 142 million shoppers purchased online, 124 million purchased in brick-and-mortars, and 76 million did both. Underlining the shopping trend, Matthew Shay, president of the National Retail Federation, said that Americans "continue to start their holiday shopping earlier in the year". According to the NRF estimate, Americans on the average spent $361.90 between Thanksgiving Day (November 28, 2019) and Cyber Monday (December 2, 2019) this year, an increase of 16% compared to the last year.

YEAR 2020
Retail Sales Projected Jump between 3.6% and 5.2% 
National Retail Federation delayed the projection of holiday sales this year by a month in order to better gauge the effect of pandemic on nation’s retail landscape. On November 23, 2020, country’s premium retail trade group has estimated that combined November-December sales this year will jump by 3.6% t0 5.2% from last year’s $729.1 billion (a 4% gain last year’s combined November-December sales) to the range of $755.3 billion to $766.7 billion. Over the last five years, holiday retail sales uptick is averaging by 3.5% .

Best Black Friday Online Sales Reported
Adobe Analytics reported on November 28, 2020 that this year’s Black Friday (November 27) helped set a record in online sales as shoppers weary of COVID-19 pandemic filled up virtual carts with merchandises worth $9 billion, a 22% jump compared to previous record of $7.4 billion registered in 2019. Meanwhile, in-store sales slumped on Black Friday, falling by 52%, according to Sensormatic Solutions. Footwear and jewelry product lines have witnessed some of the largest declines ever. Another notable event this year was stores remaining closed on the Thanksgiving Day, first time many retailers have done so since a broader trend had emerged in 2013 to have stores opened on the Thanksgiving Day to get prepared for early birders.

YEAR 2021
Adobe Analytics Forecasts First ever $200 billion Breach in the Holiday Online Sales 
Adobe Analytics reported on October 20, 2021 that its renowned Adobe Digital Economy Index Holiday Shopping Forecast Model was pointing at another year of bumper holiday online sales during November and December 2021 combined period, with the sales exceeding the $200 billion threshold for the first time, coming only four years after the holiday online sales broke another record of $100 billion in 2017. Cyber Monday will be again the biggest online sales day this year, with an estimated sales of $11.3 billion, but the growth rate will be a meager 4%, compared to last year's 15% and 17% in 2019. However, reflecting a severe supply-chain problem and what may be expected to happen during the holidays, the out-of-stock notification is now up 172% from a year ago. 

Cyber Monday Sales Fall for the First Time
Adobe Digital Economics Index shows that this year's Cyber Monday (November 29, 2021) online sales have fallen for the first time, a drop of 1.4% to $10.7 billion compared to the last year's corresponding figures. Meanwhile, National Retail Federation estimated that the Black Friday (November 25, 2021) in-store traffic had jumped to 66 million, up from last year's 52.9 million and compared to 84.2 million in 2019. 

Retail Sales A Big Bright Spot in the Midst of a New COVID Surge
National Retail Federation said in early December 2021 that this year's holiday sales were on track to beat its already record-breaking estimates of 8.5% to 10.5% growth compared to last year's sales. Holiday sales spiked last year by a whopping 8.2%, and shoppers moved to online and splurged on home goods and pajamas as many of them had stayed put at home last year. 
Meanwhile, Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks all modes of payments including cash and debit cards, has reported on December 26, 2021 that, between November 1, 2021 and December 24, 2021, holiday sales have risen 8.5% relative to last year. Mastercard SpendingPulse earlier projected an 8.8% increase. Holiday sales were up 10.7% compared to pre-pandemic 2019 holiday period. This year, clothing rose 47%, jewelry rose 32% and electronics by 16%, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse. Online sales rose 11% compared to last year, 61% compared to 2019. Department stores had 21% increase compared to holiday period in 2020. 

YEAR 2022

Back-to-School Spending: DFW Will Top the National Average
A Deloitte study published by The Dallas Morning News on July 27, 2022 reports that the DFW parents will be spending more than the parents overall in the back-to-school spending. Texas parents will be looking for items such as transparent backpacks, shoes and school items during the upcoming tax-free weekend August 5-7, 2022. According to the Deloitte study, the average back-to-school spending is estimated at $987 per child compared to the national average of  $661. Last year (2021), DFW parents on the average spent $1,087. This year is turning out to be challenging, with the threat of recession looming large, inflation running at the highest level since 1981 and geopolitical situation being fluid because of, among other things, Russian invasion of Ukraine.  

Holiday Sales Will Jump This Year, but not by an Out-of-blue Pace, NRF Predicts
National Retail Federation on November 3, 2022 put out this year's holiday sales figures which are expected to rise a healthy 6% to 8%, but still fall short of last year's comparable growth of 13.5%. The combined November and December sales this year will rise to a range between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion. The numbers exclude automobile sales, transactions at gas stations and restaurant sales. 

Record Cyber Monday Sales Reported
The Dallas Morning News reported on December 2, 2022 based on Adobe Analytics numbers that Cyber Monday sales this year hit a record, $11.3 billion, up 5.8% compared to last year. However, the online discount this year was significant. In the toy category, the average discount this year was 34% compared to 19% last year, according to a report issued on November 30, 2022 by Adobe Analytics. Electronics discounts stood at a whopping 25% compared to 8% last year. 

Holiday Sales Hitting Marks Despite Inflation
A key report issued on December 26, 2022 pointed to a healthy retail sales during holidays despite several hurdles, including a stubborn inflation. According to a report issued by the Mastercard SpendingPulse that reflects all types of sales, including cash, credit and debit cards, the sales has risen 7.6% during this year's holiday period compared to last year's. Last year's growth rate was 8.5%. Although this year's sales growth came 0.9 percent below the last year's level, it easily beat the forecast of 7.1%
Mastercard SpendingPulse tracked all sales between November 1, 2022 through December 24, 2022, covering the all important busy Christmas shopping days. The report breaks down by categories: clothing clocked a healthy 4.4%, while jewelry and electronics dropped about 5%. Between brick-and-mortar and online transactions, in-person sales rose 6.8% and online sales rose a whopping 10.6%. Department stores came up with a meager 1% growth compared to 2021. 
The data released on December 26, 2022 excludes auto sales and is not adjusted to inflation. Behind the healthy growth figure of 7.6%, there are many stories that reflect a very complex and evolving retail landscape. There is a general consumer propensity for scaling down on national brands in favor of less expensive private labels. Consumers are spending more on basic necessities such as food than other merchandises such as electronics. 

YEAR 2023

NRF Estimates Sales Growth of 3% to 4% in 2023 Holiday Season
The Dallas Morning News on November 23, 2023 reported, based on the projections from the National Retail Federation, that the retail sales would jump between 3% and 4% in November-December 2023 compared to that of November-December 2022. The sales jump is in alignment with the long-term pre-pandemic annual sales increase of 3.6% experienced between 2010 and 2019. The forecast from the NRF excludes auto, restaurant and gasoline, and compares to 9.1% increase in 2020, 12.7% in 2021 and 5.4% in 2022
A separate survey from Deloitte forecasts that on the average, Dallas area shoppers will spend $1,864, a 2% increase compared to the last year, during 2023 Holiday season. That's about 13% higher than the national average of $1,652, according to The Dallas Morning News' November 23, 2023, edition. 

Online Sales This Holiday Season Starts off on Healthy Note
Adobe Analytics at the end of the Black Friday on November 24, 2023 gave a sneak-peek of how the shopper had demonstrated in terms of shopping behavior and whether it did portend a healthy Holiday season. According to the Adobe Analytics,
* Online sales on the Thanksgiving Day (November 23, 2023) jumped 5.5% this year to $5.6 billion
* Consumers spent $76.7 billion online in the first 23 days of November this years
* Online Black Friday sales increased 5.7% to $9.6 billion this year
National Retail Federation forecasted that this year's combined November-December sales would increase 3% to 4% to $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion

Record Cyber Monday Sales Reported
Adobe reported on November 27, 2023 that consumers had spent between $12 billion and $12.4 billion on the Cyber Monday (November 27, 2023), a record. The five-day (November 23-27, 2023) Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday online sales figure is 7.8% higher than the corresponding five-day period last year to reach $38 billion.  

Retail Sales Come Bumper, according to Mastercard
According to a survey released on December 26, 2023 by the Mastercard, the retail sales during November 1, 2023 through December 24, 2023 jumped 3.1% relative to comparable period last year. The in-store sales jumped 2.2% and online sales jumped 6.3%. Among the categories, the Mastercard SpendingPulse Survey points to a healthy retail landscape across the broader spectrum of categories, with Restaurants (7.8%), Apparel (2.4%), Grocery (2.1%) having seen the uptick while Electronics  and Jewelry losing grounds by 0.4% and 2%, respectively. 



JCPENNY

A three-way legal drama, involving some high-level testimonials at the New York Supreme Court, played out since the trial began on February 20, 2013 with appearance of CEOs Terry Lundgren of Macy's, Ron Johnson of J.C. Penney and Martha Stewart of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc. Since 2007, Macy's has been exclusively selling many of Martha Stewart's home merchandises such as cookware and utensils, which J.C. Penney made a coup in December 2011 taking use a loophole in the Macy's exclusive agreement by having the home diva namesake to open its store within JCP. JCP also bought a stake of 17 percent in Martha Stewart Living by investing $38.5 million. Macy's filed a lawsuit against Martha in January 2012 and JCP three months later. On March 7, 2013, Judge Jeffrey Oing asked three parties to participate in mediation between now and April 8, 2013, next hearing date.

On late April 8, 2013, Ron Johnson was forced out as his trend-setting model of launching store-within-store concept without enough testing led to 25 percent loss in revenue over the past year, and more so during critical holiday quarter, and nearly $1 billion in loss. Former CEO Myron Ullman was brought back to lead the 111-year retail chain out of financial and sales morass.

On April 12, 2013, Judge Jeffrey Oing gave J.C. Penney a break from the dilemma over a three-way legal drama, involving Penney, Macy's and Martha, by letting JCP sell Martha-branded housewares to sell. Oing gave ouster of Johnson, who had orchestrated the deal with Stewart, one of the reasons for go-ahead.

After a public spat with the 111-year-old retailer's board in general and Chairman Tom Engibous in particular over finding a permanent CEO to replace Myron Ullman sooner, the activist investor and Pershing Square Capital head Bill Ackman resigned from the board on August 13, 2013 in what could be termed as a mutually agreed exit. Ackman's 17.7 percent stake in J. C. Penney will be bought over by Citigroup, which may sell the shares later when the stock prices will go up and reap a healthy profit, according to an announcement by Ackman himself on August 26, 2013. Back in 2010, Ackman and Vornado Realty Trust's Steven Roth disclosed that between them they had owned about 26 percent of Penney stake. Both Ackman and Vornado Chairman Roth were added to the J.C. Penney board without proxy later in 2010. In March 2013, when the then-CEO Ron Johnson was battling for his survival, Roth sold 10 million shares, leaving only 6.1 percent stakes under the control of Vornado. After Bill Ackman's August 13, 2013, resignation from the board, former Macy's Vice Chairman Ronald W. Tysoe was added to the board.

On September 3, 2013, Dallas-based hedge fund Hayman Capital , run by the Fort Worth billionaire Kyle Bass, disclosed that it had bought 5.2 percent stake in Penney. Also on September 3, 2013, New York-based Glenview Capital Management founded by Lawrence Robbins announced that it had acquired more than 20 million, or 9.1 percent, of JC Penney shares. These two high-profile activities related to Penney shares came on the top of August 30, 2013, high-stake disclosure by another New York-based hedge fund, Perry Corp led by Richard Perry, that it had bought an additional 3 million shares for $12.90 apiece, thus raising its stake in the retailer to 8.62 percent. Last month Penney board approved a so-called poison pill that would bar anyone to acquire more than 10 percent of the retailer.

In the backdrop of a challenging market and customer reluctance to return to its stores in expected numbers, J.C. Penney Co. on September 27, 2013 announced to sell 84 million of shares at a price of $9.65 per share by October 1, 2013 to cushion its liquidity position during the all important holiday season. The offering of 84 million shares will fetch $810.6 million, and then the Goldman Sachs, the underwriter for this stock offering, will have flexibility of selling an additional 12.6 million of shares for $9.65 per share within the next 30 days.

JCPenney Names New CEO
Plano-based J.C. Penney Co. on October 13, 2014 announced that Home Depot Executive Vice President Marvin Ellison would become the retailer's new CEO and President in August 2015. However, Ellison will join Penney on November 1, 2014, and will work alongside Myron Ullman, who had returned to Penney in April 2013 after ouster of Ron Johnson and was credited for stabilizing the 112-year retail chain after several quarters of steep declines, to learn about and adapt to Penney environment.

Penny Files Bankruptcy
Iconic retailer J.C. Penny that once sprouted in small town America and then spread its tentacles to suburbs and glittering malls was forced to seek bankruptcy protection on May 15, 2020 as novel coronavirus had shut down its 846 department stores for weeks and its own past mistakes and online retail challenges compounded its very survival at an important juncture of retail evolution. It filed for bankruptcy in the Bankruptcy Court in Corpus Christi. The Chapter 11 filing will wipe away its debt, and the lenders who hold 70% of its first-lien debt have agreed to re-org. It has obtained $900 million in financing to get it through the bankruptcy process, and it has $500 million cash on hand. Penny CEO Jill Soltau called Chapter 11 filing as a necessary step.

J.C. Penny to Emerge Bankruptcy bailed by Two Big Mall Operators
Two landlords, Brookfield Property Partners and Simon Property Group, had decided to take ownership of more than century old iconic retailer J.C. Penny for $1.75 billion in cash and debt, according to the retailer's bankruptcy lawyer Josh Sussberg, who announced it on September 9, 2020. Companies, both of them are landlords of many J.C. Penny stores, will provide $300 million in cash, $500 million in new financing and nearly $1 billion in debt. Under the bankruptcy reorganization plan, Penny will be split into three companies: one operating company and two REITs. One REIT will own stores and another REIT will own the warehouses. When Penny filed bankruptcy in May 2020, it had $5 billion in debt, part of it would be erased in exchange for lenders' ownership of REITs. The operating company will have lease agreements with the publicly traded REITs. Penny had 846 stores when it filed for Chapter 11, and 150 stores were closed since then. Many stores will be closed in coming months. If the re-org process goes smoothly, Penny will emerge out of bankruptcy before the all crucial holiday period.

J.C. Penney Exits Bankruptcy under New Owner
J.C. Penney's sale to duo of its landlords--Simon and Brookfield--was completed on December 7, 2020, thus leading the iconic retailer to exit the Chapter 11 process that it had filed on May 15, 2020. Bankruptcy Judge David Jones signed off the retailer's sales on November 9, 2020. Another part of the retailer, warehouses and some stores, will be sold to a group of lenders in January 2021. Penny's operating company exited bankruptcy on December 7, 2020 with 690 stores open. The retailer has closed 156 stores in recent months. Six distribution centers and 160 Penny stores will be owned by a group of lenders. Penny will pay them $150 million per year in rent. 

CEO is out
As expected J.C. Penney CEO Jill Soltau's last day will be on December 31, 2020. Simon Properties and Brookfield Properties announced her departure in a news release on December 30, 2020 as they, as a new owner of the iconic retailer, wanted to find a leader focused on "innovation" and "modern retailing".

NEIMAN MARCUS

Neiman Files Bankruptcy
A 113-year-old Texan retail icon that had put Dallas in the world's fashion map filed for Chapter 11 on May 7, 2020, becoming the first big retail casualty of coronavirus pandemic. Neiman Marcus' high-profile, but expected, bankruptcy filing came three days after May 4, 2020, bankruptcy filing by another luxury brand, J. Crew. Neiman's unsustainable debt from two leveraged buyouts (LBOs) already put a strain in the company's ledger book, even absent coronavirus pandemic that had shut down all of its stores on March 18, 2020, leading to most of its 14,000 of employees to be either furloughed or laid off. After the Chapter 11 filing at the bankruptcy court in Houston, company CEO Geoffroy van Raemdonck expressed optimism that the retailer would emerge out of bankruptcy in the fall of 2020 after shedding almost $4 billion of $5 billion of its debt and as a stronger company. Its debtholders, including Pacific Investment Management Company, Davidson Kempner Capital Management and TPG, will own equity in the emerged company as owners in lieu of debt. The retailer has 42 Neiman Marcus stores, two Bergdorf Goodman stores and Horchow brand.

Judge Okays $675 million Financing during Bankruptcy
The Houston Bankruptcy Judge David R. Jones on May 8, 2020 consented to $675 million financing pipeline to Neiman Marcus as the luxury retailer would navigate through the bankruptcy process and emerge from Chapter 11 sometime in the Fall of 2020.

Neiman Gets Nod to Exit Bankruptcy
Receiving a second chance to survive and thrive in ever-changing and challenging retail landscape,  Neiman Marcus on September 4, 2020 had the positive news from a bankruptcy judge, Judge David R. Jones, who had okayed the iconic retailer's exit plan from bankruptcy. The retailer will exit the bankruptcy with seven fewer stores, $750 million in term loan, and $1.29 billion in debt, shedding almost $4 billion in debt from its pre-filing debt level of $5.1 billion. Among the seven stores slated to be closed is Manhattan's Hudson Yard store that had been open since March 2019. CEO Geoffrey van Raemdonck said that the company would focus on its Bergdorf brand as it "is the beacon of luxury". The retailer's new owners include PIMCO, Davidson Kempner Capital and Sixth Street Partners.

Neiman Exits Bankruptcy
Neiman Marcus on September 25, 2020 completed its journey through a quick bankruptcy process and exit it with only $1.25 billion in debt, down significantly from $5.1 billion in debt, and shaving off $200 million in interest payment that had hobbled the iconic retailer from investing in growing segments of its business and executing a turnaround strategy. Neiman also has a wherewithal of money with a $750 million term loan from Credit Suisse
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RadioShack Files for Bankruptcy Protection
After years of flirting with bankruptcy and seeing some of the electronics retailer chains such as Tweeter, Ultimate Electronics and Circuit City liquidating one by one, Fort Worth-based RadioShack Corp. on February 13, 2015 filed for Chapter 11 protection. The 94-year-old retailer said that it had reached an agreement with its largest shareholder Standard General to acquire 1,500 to 2,400 RadioShack stores.

Hedge Fund Buys RadioShack
New York-based hedge fund Standard General on April 1, 2105 became the winning bidder after a bankruptcy judge tossed out the objections from the retailer's biggest lender, Salus Capital. Standard General will co-own 1,743 stores with Sprint Wireless.
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WALMART

Walmart to Hike Wages
In a surprising move that would have potential to push the minimum wage battle to the front and center of Labor politics and prod other retailers to raise their wages too, USA's largest private employer and retail behemoth Walmart on February 19, 2015 announced that it would raise the hourly wages of its US workers to $9 by April 2015 and $10 by February 2016. Walmart's move will raise the wages of hundreds of thousands of employees over the current minimum federal wage of $7.25. There are many contributing factors to Walmart's decision to raise the hourly wage, including:
* Effort to avoid bad press in the face of pickets at its store front organized by Our Walmart movement around the Thanksgiving holidays over the last few years
* Desire to preempt local, state and federal actions to raise minimum wage as the topic has again become a focal point in the run-up to the 2016 US Presidential elections
* Corporate focus, in the backdrop of flat sales over the past few quarters at its brick-and-mortar stores, on exploring many strategic channels such as e-commerce, thus necessitating of hiring and retaining a dedicated and knowledgeable workforce and reducing the turnover rate

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