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Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Federal Government Shutdown

In a precarious political turn, House of Representatives on September 20, 2013 passed a stop-gap funding bill to run the federal government come October 1 with an axe to Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, with party-line vote 230-189. The bill will fund the government through December 15, 2013. House sent the bill to the Senate. Meanwhile, the looming government shutdown evoked the memory of November 1995 five-day shutdown--that had sent 800,000 employees home--as well as 21-day partial shutdown from December 1995 to January 1996, when half of the government had closed.

In a bizarre turn of event, Texas Senator Ted Cruz carried out a 21-hour talkathon in the Senate floor against the House bill to score a point on his dislike against the Obamacare. After his 21-hour marathon talks were over on September 25, 2013, he joined 99 other Senators to vote for proceeding the House bill to full debate.

On September 27, 2013, Democrats in Senate led by the Majority leader Harry Reed held a cloture vote to take the House bill for debate. The vote was 79-19, a rare rebuke to Tea Party senators. Later in the day, Senate passed the House bill, but stripping out the provision that would all but kill the Obamacare. The vote was on partisan line of 54-44. The Senate-approved bill also included a minor change from the House-passed bill: instead of funding the government through December 15, 2013, the Senate version funds the government through November 15, 2013.

On September 28, 2013, the US House of Representatives, locked in a battle of nerve, took up the bill sent by the Senate a day earlier, made some significant changes and passed it by 231-192 votes. The version House passed on September 28 included provisions that would:

* Delay implementation of the Affordable Care Act by a year (a significant concession by House Republicans relative to the version passed on September 20 which was altogether stripped of the healthcare overall)

* Repeal a 2.3 percent tax, effective since January 2013, on medical devices such as CT scan machines, eyeglasses, contact lenses, hearing aids and other items, thus depriving the government of $29 billion over the next decade.

As it was clear that the bill passed by the House of Representatives on September 28 had no chance of getting approved by the Senate, the outcome that every American feared became reality on October 1, 2013 as the federal government had to shut down partially for the first time in 17 years. Meanwhile, the drama now enters into another vexed issue of raising country's debt ceiling which will be breached by mid-October.

On October 5, the fifth-day of the federal government shutdown, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced that he was recalling about 350,000 of the Defense Department's civilian employees, who out of approximately 800,000 DD civilian employees had been furloughed. Secretary Hagel justified the recall of almost all of the furloughed civilian employees as their works were vital to the "morale, well-being, capabilities and readiness of the service members" under the Pay Our Military Act, which was passed by Congress and signed by the president few days prior to shutdown.

Also on October 5, 2013, House of Representatives unanimously passed a bill (407-0) that would back-pay the furloughed federal employees after re-opening of the federal government. However, the bigger threat to the economy is looming from the imminent breach of country's debt ceiling which may come as early as October 17, 2013, according to the Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.

As the federal government shutdown entered into the second week, short-term treasury yields which stood firm so far started to show an uneasiness of policy gridlock and debt default. One-month Treasury Bill that had yielded 0.13 percent only on October 7, 2013 spiked to double the rate, 0.27 percent on October 8, 2013, the highest rate since 2008. Meanwhile, the larger concern of debt default is looming large as the debt ceiling of $16.7 trillion has already been hit in May 2013. Since then, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has employed a variety of measures to conserve cash, and he is set to exhaust of all those measures by October 17, 2013. On the legislative front, both House and Senate on October 8, 2013 began their divergent headways to resolve the impasse. House passed a measure by 224-197 vote to create a 20-member bipartisan working group to work on ways to find out resolution to end the government shutdown and raise the debt limit. The working group, also jokingly called Super-committee 2.0 after the first Super-committee had miserably failed to address the nation's burgeoning national debt in 2011, will be charged, under the House bill, to come up with a 2014 fiscal plan, including replacing some of the sequestration cuts. Meanwhile, Senate Majority leader Harry Reid introduced a bill on October 8 that would suspend enforcement of debt limit through end of 2014.

On October 9, 2013, the ninth-day of the federal government shutdown, both parties began to look for ways to end the crisis, with most of the Republicans desperate for any face-saving exit strategy. On October 9, 2013, pro-Republican National Retail Federation joined the chorus of the other Republican-leaning groups such as U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers in urging the Republicans to help resolve the crisis. NRF President Mathew Shay sent a letter to Congress on October 9, 2013, asking for a continuing resolution (CR) to provide funding for the government as well as raising the nation's debt limit. Meanwhile, President Obama asked all 232 House Republicans to the White House for a session on October 10.

On October 10, 2013, House Speaker John Boehner pruned the president's guest list to 20, and those 20 Republican House members met with President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in the White House's ornate Roosevelt Room for an intense session over a plan that would raise the national debt limit through November 22, 2013, but didn't include any tangible action to re-open the federal government. Also on the tenth day of the shutdown, Senate Republicans led by Mitch McConnell, R-KY, Minority Leader, started to show political willingness to come up with their own plan for the first time. The onus fell on veteran Senator Susan Collins, R-Maine, to assemble a package that would repeal a tax on medical devices that funds the Obamacare and new income-verification mechanism for beneficiaries of ACA (Affordable Care Act) healthcare subsidies.

The continuing impasse has raised consternation among international policymakers as evidenced during a three-day session (October 10-12, 2013) of IMF Policymaking body's conference that is held around the annual IMF and World Bank annual conference. World Bank President Jim Yong King urged Washington political establishment on October 12, 2013 to come up with a resolution to the debt ceiling issue. The policymaking panel of IMF at the conclusion of its three-day session issued a statement on October 12, 2013 that said, "The United States needs to take urgent action to address" the uncertainties created by the budget impasse, an echo of Group of 20 statement issued a day earlier (October 11).

After several fits and starts and total failure of leadership from the House, Senate on October 16, 2013 showed the path of re-opening the government after 16 days of shutdown and averting a more dangerous default on the country's credit ratings. The agreement, reached between the Majority Leader Senator Harry Reid, D-Nevada and the Minority Leader Senator Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, was approved by the Senate (81-18 votes) and later by the House of Representatives (285-144 votes with 87 Republicans joining the Democrats). Late on October 16, 2013, the bill was signed by the President Barack Obama. This was a disastrous outcome for the GOP as the 16-day shutdown helped unite the Democratic ranks, divide the Republican establishment and shape public opinion against the GOP. At the end, Republicans got no concession from the President and Democrats as far as Obamacare was concerned. The deal lifts the country's debt limit of $16.7 trillion through February 7, 2014, and funds the government through January 15, 2014 at the current level.

In a sweet surprise to political establishment in Washington D.C., Senate Budget Committee head Sen. Pat Murray, D-Washington, and House of Representative Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, on late December 10, 2013 reached an $85 billion agreement that would fund the federal agencies through fall of 2015. The deal restores funding for many programs, which  have been taken off because of sequestration that has been in effect since March 1, 2013. As soon as the news of the deal spread in political circles, conservatives got up in the arms as it would cancel half of the automatic cuts that came into effect this spring (March 1, 2013).  The agreement calls for:

(1) Setting the budget for Pentagon and other agencies at $1.012 trillion for Fiscal 2014, reversing a two-year slide in agency spending.
The Pentagon will get an additional $2 billion over the last year, while the domestic agencies will get a boost of $22 billion, thus providing the federal government with means to fund programs such as early childhood education and infrastructure at a higher level.

(2) Increasing the budget for Fiscal 2015 by a slight margin to $1.014 trillion, replacing $63 billion in automatic spending cuts (starting in January 2014 through the end of fiscal 2015).

(3) Reducing the deficit by $23 billion over the next decade (2014-23) by extending a cut of 2 percent to Medicare providers for an additional two years (2022 and 2023).

(4) Ending any extension of long-term unemployment benefits, implying that more than a million long-term unemployed will see their last check this month (December 2013).

(5) Making up the added costs to replace automatic cuts through a mix of policies over the next decade with half through savings and half through non-tax revenue. They include:
(a) $12.6 billion in additional revenue from airline security fees for passengers
(b) $8 billion in additional fees from federal insurance for private pensions
(c) $6 billion in reduced payment to student loan debt collectors
(d) $3 billion in savings by not refilling completely the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserves
(e) $12 billion in savings from reduced contributions to federal pensions, evenly divided between military veterans and new civilian federal workers who will join after January 1, 2014. Military veterans with ages between 40 and 62 will get reduced cost of living adjustments, while the new civilian federal employees, who will join after January 1, 2014, are required to pay an additional 1.3 percent to their pension plan.

On December 12, 2013, House of Representative approved the Ryan-Murray blueprint by 332-94 votes after House Speaker John Boehner took a very harsh stand against conservative groups opposed to the deal, calling out that these conservative groups had lost "credibility" by rushing to oppose the measure before going through the deal. The measure now goes to the Senate.

On December 18, 2013, Senate approved the $85 billion budget compromise passed by the House on December 12 that would restore $63 billion in spending (both defense and domestic) starting in January 2014 through the Fiscal 2015 compared to automatic cuts in exchange for savings of $85 billion over the next decade from a variety of options, including reduced cost adjustments for military retirees who are 62 and younger. This entails a net deficit reduction of $23 billion over the next decade.

In a movement away from the gridlock, the US Congress on December 19, 2013 sent a Defense Authorization Bill to President Obama for his signature. The bill includes a price tag of $552.1 billion for the regular military budget and $80.7 billion for the war in Afghanistan for fiscal 2014.
However, the salient feature of this bill is the safety net to protect sex assault victims and strong measure to punish the perpetrators within the ranks of armed forces. The measures against sex assault include:
* Stripping the authority of commanders to overturn the conviction
* Requiring a civilian review if a commander fails to start prosecution
* Dishonorable discharge or dismissal of any one convicted of sex assault
* Elimination statute of limitation on sex assault cases
* Providing the counsel to aggrieved parties
* Criminalization of any act to get even with complainant
* Changing military's Article 32 proceeding in order to bar questions pointed to more private and intrusive questions
Pentagon estimated that about 26,000 military personnel were raped in 2012.

President Obama signed the $85 billion budget compromise measure, crafted by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., and Pat Murray, D-Washington, on December 26, 2013 while vacationing in Hawaii.
o       2014 Budget Highlight
§         Keeping all of the automatic spending cuts would have capped the budget at $967 billion
§         Instead, the compromise raises the spending for FISCAL 2014 to $1.012 trillion ($520.5 billion in Defense spending plus $491.8 billion in other domestic spending)
o       Additional Revenue (Raised over 10 years)
§         Airline travelers will see security fees rise from $5 to $11.20 for a typical round-trip ticket (raises $13 billion)’
§         Federal workers will pay 1.3 percent more into their pension plan (raises $6 billion)
§         Corporations will pay higher premiums to guarantee pension benefits (raises $8 billion)

§         Military retirees under age 62 will see smaller retirement benefit cost-of-living raises (raise of 1 percent below the rate of inflation would raise $7 billion over a decade)

Lawmakers from the Congressional appropriation committees on January 14, 2014 unveiled a $1.1 trillion spending plan through September 30, 2014. This marked a sharp, but much welcome, departure from recent years' norm in which Congress approved only months-long, and sometime weeks-long, stopgap bills to fund agencies. Under the plan, which complied with broader Murray-Ryan Budget blueprint agreed on December 10, 2013 and signed by President Obama on December 26, 2013, agency funding will be increased in Fiscal 2014 by $45 billion from the sequester-mandated level of $967 billion to $1.012 billion. The Fiscal 2014 agency funding of $1.012 billion includes $520.5 billion in Defense funding and $491.8 billion in other domestic agency funding. Including the war spending of $91.9 billion and disaster spending of $6.55 billion, total Fiscal 2014 spending stands at $1.1 trillion ($1,012 billion + $91.9 billion + $6.55 billion amounts to roughly $1,110.7 billion). The 1,582-page appropriation bill was passed by the House on January 15, 2014 by 359-67 vote, with 166 Republican lawmakers voting for the bill and only 64 opposing it in a significant change in tide in sentiment among Republican lawmakers days after Speaker John Boehner took his bully pulpit and slammed the outside conservative groups for putting pressure on the lawmakers. On January 16, 2014, Senate approved the $1.1 trillion appropriation bill by 72-26 votes after Texas Senator Ted Cruz dropped his plan for a fight over Affordable Care Act at the last minute.

Farm Bill Unveiled
A 10-year compromise farm bill is winding through the Congress in its way to President Obama's desk. The $100 billion per year measure is designed to pay more money for crop insurance that is popular with the Midwest farmers, abolish direct payment to farmers whether they farm or not, and chop off about $800 million from the food stamp program. Eighty percent of the farm bill, or $80 billion a year, is dedicated for food stamp program, formally known as Supplement and Nutrition Assistance Program. In 2013, an average of 47.6 million people used food stamps at a cost of $79.6 billion, and since 2008, the number of people under SNAP had almost doubled because of deep recession, subsequent weak recovery and stagnated wages of American families. The farm bill includes the following breakdown in terms of allocation of funding: 80% for food stamp program; 15% for farm subsidies and crop insurance; and remaining 5% for conservation, rural development, renewable energy and other farm programs. The legislation includes:
* A cut of $800 million in food stamp program although it provides financing of additional $200 million to nation's food banks
* Scrapping a yearly $4.5 billion in direct payments to farmers irrespective of they farm or not

On January 29, 2014, House passed the farm bill by 251-166 votes. Many GOP conservatives were dismayed by only 1% cut in food stamp program as they had targeted almost 5%, or nearly $5 billion in cuts.

Debt Ceiling Raised without a Fight
In a sweet surprise and taking a break from the precedent of intense fights over the past few years, House of Representatives on February 11, 2014 voted 221-201 to raise the country's debt limit through March 2015, without attaching any other provision to it. The move was indicative of big gamble on behalf of Speaker John Boehner as most of his party's lawmakers voted against the measure, and the debt ceiling bill sailed through the House almost solely through the support by the Democratic lawmakers. Only 28 Republicans have voted for the measure. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid applauded the leadership shown by Speaker Boehner.
On February 12, 2014, Senate passed the measure by 55-43 votes after Senators voted 67-31 to proceed with the vote on the debt ceiling measure. The clean debt ceiling measure, which allows government to borrow through March 2015, now goes to President Barack Obama for his signature.

Lopsided Vote Undoes the Cuts in Veteran Pensions Raise Rates
Bowing to pressure from veterans groups such as Veterans of Foreign Wars, Congress reversed its action on lowering the rate of increase of pensions of veterans of ages 62 and younger. House of Representatives on February 11, 2014 voted 326-90, and Senate followed it up on February 12, 2014 with 95-3. As part of the Ryan-Murray deal, the cost of living adjustments for veterans of ages 62 and younger was set at 1 percent below the rate of inflation, setting off a fierce protest from veterans groups and sympathetic lawmakers from both political parties.

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