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Monday, February 11, 2013

Federal Reserve's Policy Meeting in 2013

Federal Open Market Committee held the first meeting of the year 2013 on January 28 and January 29. The policymakers re-affirmed their stand of holding down the federal funds rate to near zero at least until the jobless rates fell to 6.5 percent and expand treasury and mortgage-backed security holding by $85 billion each month, respectively.

March 19-20, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Federal policymakers during their second open market committee meeting left all the working nuts and bolts intact as Chairman Ben Barnanke pledged to continue the policy of $85 billion monthly buyback of long-term treasury and mortgage-backed bonds and leave the key federal funds rate to near zero until the jobless rate hits 6.5 percent or below. Out of 12 policy makers, sole dissenter was Esther George of Kansas City Federal Reserve.

June 18-19, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
The two-day open market committee meeting left the near-zero overnight federal funds rate intact and $85 billion bond re-purchase program on track. However, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, addressing reporters on June 19, 2013, gave a cautious stamp of approval to continuing, but slow pace of improvement in nation's economy by saying that the Fed would slow down the bond re-purchase program by the end of the year and end it if unemployment rate fell below 7 percentage point. This was in addition to previous clarification for the other component of stimulus program: Fed would begin raise short-term interest rate once jobless rate would hit or fall below 6.5 percent.

July 30-31, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Given the tepid growth rate of the economy--the US economy grew at only 1.7 percent rate during the second quarter--the Federal Reserves policymakers were more reserved in terms of the so-called tapering talks at the end of two-day meet. Instead the tone was to continue the $85 billion treasury and bond buying program.

September 17-18, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Federal policymakers made it clear that the economy was not at a level where they could entertain the idea of "tapering" of the stimulus as there were three primary causes that would still justify continuing $85 billion a month mortgage and treasury buyback program: (1) unemployment rate still remained at reasonably high level of 7.3 percent; (2) indications of housing slowdown as the mortgage rates had surged in recent days; and (3) growing uncertainty over a possible government shutdown.

October 29-30, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Federal policymakers didn't take any action or drop any hint on any possible "taper-off" plan regarding its $85 billion a month asset--treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities--purchase plan.

December 17-18, 2013 Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
Federal policymakers during the last open market committee meeting of the year decided to scale down the monthly bond buyback program from its current level of $85 billion to $75 billion. In terms of impact due to this minor taper-off, no one is sure of its degree of influence on the broader economy. The federal funds rate will be kept near zero, a record low. This is most likely to have:

(1) Trending up the long-term interest rate

(2) The short-term interest rate will follow the status quo, which is low.

This will add to the financial bonanza to banks as they don't need to offer more interest payment on the money they get from consumers while they will make more money because of higher interest rates on loans made to their customers. 

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