President Obama's Students Loan Program Overhaul

President Barack Obama on October 26, 2011, by Executive Order, unveiled a students loan program overhaul that would have two main components.

First Component
His administration would accelerate a measure passed by Congress last year (2010) that would decrease maximum payment on student loans from 15% of the discretionary income to 10% of the discretionary income. The White House wants the measure to go into effect in 2012 instead of 2014. In addition, remaining debt will be forgiven after 20 years instead of originally crafted 25 years. About 1.6 million borrowers will be affected.

Second Component
This will help borrowers to consolidate loans from Family Education Loan Program (FELP) and a direct loan from the government into one loan, with consolidated loan up to half-a-percentage point less. This will affect 5.8 million borrowers.

In 2010, Congress passed a law that reduced the cap and converted into direct lending by eliminating banks as middlemen. Before that private lenders would get loan from the government, or from FELP loans from other private lenders but backed by government, and then disburse them among students.

First Female CEO at IBM

IBM Corporation on October 25, 2011 announced that it would promote Virginia "Ginni" Rometty to the position of CEO effective January 1, 2012, first female CEO in the technology giant's history. The incumbent Sam Palmisano will assume the role of Chairman. Rometty currently (as of October 25) heads the sales and marketing and was instrumental in integrating PriceWaterhouseCooper.

HOUSING MARKET AND REAL ESTATE MARKET

Obama's Home Refinance Overhaul

As his jobs plan was rejected by the Senate and now with the components of the bill being tried to put to vote in the upper chamber by frustrated Democrats, President Obama used presidential bully pulpit of "Executive Order" to issue a set of rules to help nation's beleaguered homeowners on October 24, 2011 and planning to do the same for country's students by easing the rules of federal student loans on October 26, 2011. On October 24, 2011, President Obama unveiled changes to 2-year-old Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) at Las Vegas, one of the worst housing markets in US. 

 *** ORIGINAL Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) *** 

 HARP was originally started in 2009 to let homeowners refinance their mortgages at lower rates. Borrowers could bypass the rules of having at least 20% equity in home. However, a significant constraint was that home values should not be lower by more than 25% of what the homeowners owe. This specific constraint excluded roughly 10% of the homeowners, according to CoreLogic, a real estate data firm. In some distressed areas, the home values are more than 50% underwater. According to CoreLogic, roughly 22.5% of the U.S. homeowners, or 11 million households, are underwater, or owe more than the value of the house. Also, the closing costs and other items related to refinancing under the HARP 2009 amount to thousands of dollars, thus precluding millions of households suffering from the worst recession in seven decades. As of August 31, 2011, fewer than 900,000 homeowners, and just 72,000 underwater homeowners, have taken advantage of the HARP. The eligibility for original HARP was that home loans should have been owned or backed by Freddie Mac, or Fannie Mae, which had been taken over by the government three years ago. About half of all the U.S. mortgages, or nearly 31 million loans, are backed or owned by these two agencies, now under the umbrella of Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA). The way Fannie and Freddie used to work was that they would buy loans from lenders, package them into bonds and sell them to investors. 

 *** ORIGINAL Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) *** ********** 

NEW HARP UNVEILED ON OCT 24, 2011**************** 

Under the changes to HARP announced by President Obama on October 24, 2011 at Las Vegas, FHFA would remove: * 25% threshold of how much homeowners are "underwater" to allow more mortgages to qualify * some closing fees, title insurance and lien processing According to FHFA estimates, at least 1 million additional households will get the opportunity to refinance their mortgages. Moody's Analytics estimated the figure as high as 1.6 million. However, the biggest hurdle is that this program is voluntary for lenders. Any loan that has been refinanced in the last 2 1/2 years or has not been sold to Fannie or Freddie before June 2009 is not qualified for the new program. 

 ********** NEW HARP UNVEILED ON OCT 24, 2011**************** 

President Obama took a swipe at the Congress while unveiling the new refinancing package on October 24, 2011 by retorting: "We can't wait". However, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus responded on October 24: "It's another day in the campaign life of President Obama, and he's bringing his re-election tour to Nevada, ground zero for the damaging effects of his failed economic policies".

**************************** REALPAGE ****************************

Class-action Lawsuit Filed against RealPage, Apartment Operators

Five renters on October 20, 2022 filed a class-action lawsuit against RealPage and seven nationally renowned property managers, accusing them of colluding and working like a "cartel" to jack up rental prices by using the property management services firm's proprietary YieldStar algorithm. The firm sells software and analytics services to rental industry. In 2021, RealPage was taken private by Thoma Bravo, one of the largest private equity firms, in a $10.2 billion deal. 

DOJ Files Antitrust Lawsuit

The U.S. Department Justice along with attorneys general of North Carolina, California, Colorado, Minnesota, Tennessee, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington filed an antitrust lawsuit against RealPage on August 23, 2024, accusing the property management software company of fixing rental prices by leveraging the proprietary data from rental operators and colluding with them. The civil antitrust lawsuit [based on Sherman Act] was filed following a two-year investigation into the rental pricing model that the firm had developed for a rental market that it had a monopoly over with an almost 80% share. The lawsuit was filed in the Middle District of North Carolina. 

**************************** REALPAGE ****************************

Settlement to Impact Real Estate Commission, Save Consumers Billions

A $418 million settlement by the National Association of Realtors, according to a front-page article in the March 16, 2024, edition of The Dallas Morning News, will obviate any requirement for the sales agents to split the commission with the buyers' brokers in exchange for using the MLS. At present, sellers have to pay 5% to 6% commission to their brokers to advertise their properties on the Multiple Listing Service. According to the Consumer Federation of America, the settlement is likely to save U.S. consumers $20 billion to $30 billion annually.

NAFTA-IMF-OECD-WTO-WORLD BANK-UN NEWS

IMF

New IMF Chief
After the ignominious exit of Dominique Strauss-Kahn in May 2011 over a sex scandal involving a maid at a posh hotel in Manhattan, New York, the IMF has gone through a turbulent time with Greece teetering on the edge and many Euro countries overwhelmed by high unemployment rates. Meanwhile, the developing nations led by the so-called BRIC (Brazil-Russia-India-China) were clamoring someone from their ranks to be elected to lead the august international financial body. However, after much debate and hand-wringing, international community has settled on the French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde to lead the Fund. Her selection on June 28, 2011 marked another milestone for the advancement of females in the highest policy-making echelon. This is the first time the IMF will be led by a woman.

************************** IMF'S WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ******************

The International Monetary Fund on September 20, 2011 came out with dire forecasts of the world economy:

U.S. +1.5% (2011); +1.8% (2012), down from June forecast of 2.5% (2011) and 2.7% (2012).

Euro Zone: 1.6% (2011); 1.1 (2012), down from 2% and 1.7%.

Source: IMF Chief Economist Oliver Blanchard

IMF's latest bi-yearly report released on January 23, 2013 on world's economic prospect portrayed a cautious picture as it has projected world's economic growth for 2013 to be 3.5 percent and for 2014 around 4.1 percent, up from 2012 growth of 3.2 percent. IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard put it in perspective by saying "optimism is in the air" although a subdued one.

On July 9, 2013, IMF came up with the latest estimates of the World Economic Output:

2013 World Economic Growth: 3.1% vs. 3.3% (April Estimate)
2014 World Economic Growth: 3.8% vs. 4.0% (April Estimate)

IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard reasoned that downward revision in estimates of world economy's projected growth was due to three-fold causes of (A) Europe stuck in the mud of recession or near-recession, (B) US in the path of sluggish economic growth, and (C) most importantly, significant slowdown in developing world, including China and India. The slowdown in developing world is being caused by weakening internal demands as well as less than expected level of exports to the advanced economies.

IMF Downgrades Global Growth Estimate Because of Brexit Vote
That the fallout of the Brexit vote is not going to be limited only within the 28-nation European Union came from the horse's mouth as IMF chief Christine Lagarde said at Beijing on July 22, 2016 on the eve of a G-20 meeting of treasury chiefs and central bankers that the global economy  was poised to rise this year at 3.1 percent rate, a basis point lower than estimated earlier, mainly due to uncertainty over Britain's June 2016 vote to leave EU. Stepping into the muddy debate of Britain's exit from EU, Lagarde asked 10 Downing Street to hasten up the process.

IMF Issues Growth Forecasts on the Eve of G-20 Finance Chief Meeting
As the finance ministers and central bank chiefs were meeting at Washington D.C. for a two-day session (October 12-13, 2017), IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde on October 12, 2017 warned against isolationism and uncertainty in policies, especially the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's tax reform package. She also issued the World Economic Outlook report that forecast:
* 3.6 percent global growth for this year and 3.7 percent for 2018
* U.S. growth of 2.2 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year

IMF's Rosy Economic Forecast May Face Headwinds from Looming Trade War
As Donald Trump upped the ante on trade, IMF on April 17, 2018 issued its latest World Economic Outlook with a caveat: much of the economic progress is at the risk of peril if trade conflict between U.S. and China turns into a full-blown trade war. IMF predicted a world wide growth of 3.9 percent this year, with the U.S. and EU expected to grow 2.9 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.
************************** IMF'S WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ******************

ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD)

OECD Estimate of World Growth
According to the latest estimate by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development issued on March 11, 2014, the estimated world growth for this year (2014) is 3.5 percent compared to the estimated growth of 2.7 percent last year (2013).

New Head of OECD Welcomes Biden's Minimum Taxation Proposal

The new head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Mathias Cormann, told reporters on June 1, 2021 after taking over the secretary general job of OECD from Angel Gurria, who had led the Paris-based organization since 2006, that President Joe Biden's proposal of a global minimum corporate tax was a "game changer". President Joe Biden proposed a minimum corporate tax rate of 15% that would put a floor to prevent an undue "race to the bottom" among many tax havens. 

Global Agreement Signed on Minimum Corporate Tax Rate

A landmark agreement was signed in Paris on October 8, 2021 that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, had helped put together after a six-plus-year intense negotiation that, for the first time, would set 15% as a floor for the tax rate on corporate profits. 136 nations, including all member states of G-20 and OECD, signed the agreement on October 8, 2021 that would cover nations with 90% of the global output. Now, the rulesets have to be turned in into individual legislations and ratified by the legislatures of all participating nations. President Joe Biden hailed the agreement as equitable as it would "ensure that profitable corporations pay their fair share, and provide governments with the resources to invest in their workers and economies". U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the agreement would end the so called "race to the bottom" and help America win the international competition to attract businesses based on innovation, ingenuity and productivity. Tech companies such as Google and Amazon are on board as it will give certainty and uniform tax regime instead of multitude of tax regimes by different nations. The mechanism agreed upon will cover companies with at least 10% profitability and $23 billion in global sales. The deal will be discussed and finessed in the next week's G-20 foreign ministerial meeting and will be given final shape during Rome Summit of G-20 leaders later this month (October 2021). There are two components of the agreement: first component involves the digital sales that happen in countries with no physical presence and will now be subjected, under the agreement, to the local corporate tax regimes on the profits, affecting 100 global corporations, and the second component involves the so called 15% of the minimum corporate tax rate to be implemented by individual nations for corporations with the current total annual global sales of $864 billion.

NAFTA

NAFTA Trucking Rule
On October 21, 2011, first fleet of Mexican trucks entered into interior parts of the USA, almost 11-and-1/2 years after the originally scheduled timeline. Under NAFTA, signed in 1994, Mexican trucks would have access to highways in border states by 1995 and full access to all U.S. highways by January 2000. However, until now, Mexican trucks have seldom gotten access to beyond a border buffer zone. During George W. Bush's administration, a limited number of the Mexican trucking companies were allowed to participate in a pilot program that had allowed access to U.S. interior. After Barack Obama was elected, the pilot program was cancelled in 2009. The Mexican government responded by imposing $2 billion worth of tariff on 99 U.S. imports, including Christmas trees, onions, oranges, apples, juice concentrates, toothpaste, deodorant and sunglasses. Mexico reduced the tariff after signing the trucking agreement with the USA in July 2011, and removed altogether on October 21, 2011. At present 11 Mexican trucking companies are going through the certification process.


******************************** NAFTA RENEGOTIATION ***********************
NAFTA Renegotiation Begins
U.S., Canadian and Mexican officials on August 16, 2017 launched the renegotiation process of NAFTA at Washington, D.C. U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer is leading the U.S. officials.

First Round Concludes with Promise of Follow-up Rounds, Quick Wrap-up
Cognizant of national elections in Mexico and the United States next year, the five-day (August 16-20, 2017), first round of NAFTA talks concluded on August 20, 2017 at Washington, D.C. with a joint communique that stressed on upgrading the agreement by establishing the "21st century standards to the benefit of our citizens". The press statement also called for an accelerated and comprehensive negotiation process. The second-round will be held in Mexico between Sep 1-5, 2017, and the following round will then move to Canada for a late September 2017 session.

Third Round of NAFTA Re-Negotiation Talks Concludes without Thorny Issues
The third-round of NAFTA re-negotiation talks concluded on September 27, 2017, and during this round, U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer apparently did not even introduce some of the contentious topics that Trump administration had been fretting over. The third round, held in the Canadian capital of Ottawa, dealt and made significant progress on issues such as competition policy, digital trade, state-owned enterprises and telecommunications, according to Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland. One of the contentious topics is NAFTA's Chapter 19 that calls for an arbitration panel to mediate any dispute among parties that Washington came to despise, but Canada and Mexico favored it. Another contentious topic is related to "local content-rules", and Trump administration was in favor of tightening the rules to ban any product from outside the region to have label "made in North America" just because it is assembled in Mexico. The fourth-round will be held in Washington D.C. October 11-15, 2017.

Sixth Round of NAFTA Re-negotiation Ends without any Concrete Results
Sixth round of talks on revising current version of NAFTA ended on February 2, 2018 at Washington without yielding any tangible results. The seventh round of NAFTA re-negotiation will begin at the end of February 2018.

Trump Pushes for Sunset Clause
President Donald Trump's June 8, 2018, bilateral session with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the Quebec resort town of La Malbaie, venue of G-7 summit, covered NAFTA and his insistence on putting a five-year sunset clause as part of renewal of the landmark trade deal involving U.S., Canada and Mexico. Trump on June 9, 2018 told correspondents before heading out to Singapore for a landmark summit with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un that his meeting with Trudeau on NAFTA renewal went really well. However, Trump did not forget to issue a stern warning that if he found the NAFTA not to be working in favor of U.S., he would tear up the deal and instead go for separate deals with Mexico and Canada.

Canada, U.S. Reach NAFTA Renewal Deal a Month after U.S. and Mexico Agreed
A frenetic series of talks between officials from Ottawa and Washington reached an agreement late September 30, 2018, hours before October 1, 2018 deadline, to resuscitate the flagging NAFTA and put it on track. Trump administration and Mexico reached a deal in August 2018 to renew NAFTA with some significant tweaks, and threatened to put the deal in effect without Canada if no agreement was reached with Ottawa by September 30, 2018. Under the deal with Canada, U.S. dairy will have less restrictive trade barriers in getting access to lucrative markets in the north while Trump administration dropped its earlier insistence that a dispute resolution panel be scrapped. For the time being, the automobile tariffs imposed by both nations will continue. Among the biggest tweaks done to NAFTA were provisions that included:
* A revision of sunset clause proposed by Trump administration
* Auto parts to be allowed for duty free shipment across the borders should have a larger percentage to be made in the high-wage factories

President Hails the new NAFTA
President Donald Trump said at the Rose Garden on October 1, 2018 that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, will close "many deficiencies and mistakes" of NAFTA. Although Trump gave the trilateral deal a new name, to many it's still NAFTA.

NAFTA Replacement Deal Signed on the Sidelines of G-20 Summit at Buenos Aires
Leaders of the USA, Canada and Mexico signed a landmark agreement on November 30, 2018 on the sidelines of G-20 summit at Buenos Aires that would replace the quarter century-old NAFTA, pilloried by Donald Trump as the worst trade agreement in the U.S. history. The agreement signed by Donald Trump, Justin Trudeau and outgoing Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto is called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. NAFTA will continue to be effective until legislatures in three countries ratify the USMCA.
******************************** NAFTA RENEGOTIATION ***********************

Trump Delays Tariffs on Auto, Lifts Metal Tariffs

In pursuit to sway Congress to approve U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, renegotiated version of NAFTA, Trump administration tried its latest trick to appear bold while indirectly sending conciliatory message to Congress as Trump administration announced on May 17, 2019 two key trade-related declarations made hours apart:

* It will delay for up to six months the imposition of tariffs on the imports of autos and auto parts from Mexico and Canada

* It will lift tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico effective May 19, 2019

In June 2018, Trump administration leveraged an obscure trade clause, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, allowing the Commerce department to take steps in the interest of national security to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada ($14 billion) and Mexico ($3.5 billion). Canada will also lift the punitive tariffs imposed as a retaliation on $13 billion in U.S. imports. However, the tariffs on auto and auto parts will have much more devastating impact as U.S. imported $192 billion in vehicles and $159 billion in auto parts from its neighbors.

Pelosi Announces Deal on USMCA with Trump Administration
Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on December 10, 2019 that House Democrats had reached a deal with the Trump administration on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA, rechristened version of an update to 25-year-old NAFTA. Under the USMCA deal, Democrats won some key concessions from the administration, including strong environmental rule and strong labor rights in Mexico, especially having five U.S. representatives to carry out labor rules oversight in Mexico.

Mexico Expresses Disappointment over Last Minute Inclusion of Labor Oversight Provision
Mexican government slammed a last minute surprise pulled by the White House and Congressional negotiators over including a provision of five U.S. attaches to oversee the labor conditions in Mexican factories before sending the compromise bill to Congress on December 13, 2019. A Mexican trade official, Jesus Seade, undersecretary for the North America in the foreign ministry, flew on December 15, 2019 to Washington D.C. to hold talks on the thorny issue that had raised concern in Mexico about US meddling in a sovereign country. During negotiation, Mexican officials resisted calls of foreign inspectors in Mexican soil, and instead, settled for a three-member dispute resolution panel. Jesus Seade said that he had sent a letter to U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer, expressing "surprise and concern" over the new provision included before sending the measure to Congress on December 13, 2019. Negotiators from the U.S., Canada and Mexico signed the agreement, called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, USMCA, on December 10, 2019 at Mexico City. Two days later, December 12, 2019, Mexican Senate overwhelmingly ratified the agreement. Then the world had shattered for Mexican trade officials as they came to know the surprise inclusion of five U.S. attaches in the agreement as part of a compromise between Trump administration and Congressional Democrat before sending the bill to Congress on December 13, 2019.

USMCA Approved Overwhelmingly by the House a Day after Impeachment Vote
In a legislative paradox, Democratic majority of the House voted on December 19, 2019 to give President Donald Trump a much sought after political victory a day after impeaching a sitting president only for the third time in U.S. history. House of Representatives voted 385-41 to approve the remake of NAFTA, formally called the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, handing the president a significant political victory in an issue that he had campaigned very hard in 2016. The House vote came days after White House had struck a compromise with the Democrats that would strengthen the workers' rights and environmental rules in Mexico, and the deal was backed by powerful AFL-CIO. The 25-year NAFTA update was overdue with new e-commerce and rules. Texas' oversized export economy was underlined by unanimous support of Texas delegation in favor of the deal. Many of the mid-western rural GOP lawmakers have something to show to their constituents: enhanced access of dairy farmers to a sprawling Canadian market.

Senate Approves USMCA on January 16, 2020 by 89-10 votes.

Trump Signs the USMCA
Surrounded by hard-hat-wearing workers and Republicans, President Donald Trump on January 29, 2020 signed the landmark U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement at a White House ceremony. Trump didn't invite any Democrat to the event. 

First Tripartite Summit in Five Years

President Joe Biden on November 18, 2021 hosted his northern and southern neighbors in the East Room of the White House. Prior to the three-way conversation among the three leaders, Justin Trudeau and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador had met separately with Joe Biden. The meeting is the first in-person summit among the three USMCA member nations in five years. Despite charming and affable gestures among the leaders, there were contentious issues afflicting the individual bilateral and collective trilateral relations. Canada has expressed strong reservation against Biden's Build Back Better provision of subsidies for EVs, Mexico has expressed its disappointment over Washington's dithering of more worker visas, and U.S. and Canada have expressed dismay over  Mexico's lack of full-fledged commitment to fighting against the climate change. 

U.S-Canada-Mexico Summit Yields a Virtual Migration Platform 

U.S. President Joe Biden, Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador attended the North American Leaders' Summit in Mexico City on January 9, 2023 and January 10, 2023. The two-day summit was helpful and constructive as the leaders discussed on migration, commerce, trade, terrorism and Haiti. The key focus was on migration. The North American Leaders' Summit announced a virtual platform "to give migrants streamlined access to legal pathways".

UNITED NATIONS

UN Forecasts Faster Growth
United Nations on December 10, 2014 released the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2015 report that portrayed an world economy that would accelerate, but clumsy at best. The East Asian economy will grow, according to the UN, fueled by strong household consumption. The worldwide growth will register 3.1 percent in 2015 and 3.3 percent in 2016.

WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION

WTO Rules in Favor of USA in a High Stake Auto Import Case
World Trade Organization on May 23, 2014 ruled that China had violated rules by slapping duties as high as 21 percent on imports of cars and SUVs from USA. Beijing imposed the punitive duties in 2011 after lobbied by Chinese automakers in 2009. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman hailed the May 23, 2014, WTO ruling.
The ruling was the second setback to Beijing after a similar March 2014 WTO ruling that chastised Beijing for imposing high export duties on rare earth elements, the light-weight, superconductive minerals that are critical to a wide-range of high-tech products.

First Ever Multilateral Trade Agreement by WTO
After years of failed negotiation, World Trade Organization agreed on a multilateral deal, Trade Facilitation Agreement, on November 27, 2014 that would boost global trade and commerce by more than a trillion dollar every year from the current level of $22 trillion to $23 trillion. The agreement marked the first ever multilateral trade treaty in the organization's 20 years of existence and was possible after a U.S.-India deal on food security and subsidies. The treaty, Trade Facilitation Agreement, was hailed by U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman as a "critical step forward".

Global Trade Likely to Take Hit by Growing Populism
Growing populism around the world manifested recently by Brexit vote, rising isolationist views by Pan-European political parties and Donald Trump's strident campaign in the U.S. Presidential election against globalization is having a toll on global trade, according to World Trade Organization. WTO reported on September 27, 2016 that the global trade would grow 1.7 percent compared to its previous estimate of 2.8 percent issued in April 2016.

WTO Chief to Resign before Term Expires
Citing personal reasons, the head of World Trade Organization announced on May 14, 2020 that he would resign on August 31, 2020 on the ground of personal reasons. Roberto Azevedo, a former Brazilian diplomat, worked at cross-hairs of U.S. President Donald Trump's uninterrupted criticism of the U.N. body over global trade policies, and decided to call it quits a full year before expiry of his seven-year term.

WTO Emphasizes on Food Shortage, Overfishing, Coronavirus

The first ministerial-level meeting of 164-nation World Trade Organization in four-and-half years was held at Geneva on June 12, 2022 in which more than 120 nations' ministers had participated. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said afterward that the "road will be bumpy and rocky" as the world faced a hunger crisis, soaring inflation, still a treacherous COVID-19 and overfishing in the world's seas and oceans which posed a serious threat to marine biodiversity. A deal on overfishing is at its closest point ever. 


WORLD BANK

World Bank's Dim Forecast on Global Economy
World Bank on June 7, 2016 revised downward the global economic growth for 2016 from 2.9 percent estimated in January to a meager 2.4 percent.

World Bank Issues Bleak Global Economic Outlook

World Bank's first report of 2021 on the Global Economic Outlook was issued on January 5, 2021 that portrayed the sharpest economic decline (4.3%) last year (2020) since 1945 when the global economy had shrunk by 9.8% at the tail end of World War II because of the military demobilization by nations. In comparison, economy shrank on the average 4.8% during the Great Depression between 1930 and 1932, and 1.8% in 2009 in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The Global Economic Outlook forecasts a global growth of 4% this year (2021), fueled by the two largest economies of the world--USA (3.5%) and China (7.9%). World Bank President David Malpass opined on the health of global economy by spotlighting the weak links such as "public health, debt management, budget policies, central banking and structural reforms". The report struck a cautious tone because of surging Coronavirus and slow vaccination drive. World Bank in recent days made available $12 billion for vaccination of 1 billion people in poor countries as well as $160 billion in aid to more than 100 countries. 

World Bank: U.S. Leads Global Economy to Grow

The World Bank in the latest Global Economic Outlook report said on Jun 11, 2024 that the global economy would grow 2.6% in 2024 compared to January 2024 estimate of 2.4%. The U.S. economy will grow at an annualized 2.5%, nearly a full percentage point higher than in January 2024 estimate. 

SOCIAL SECURITY-MEDICARE-MEDICAID

SOCIAL SECURITY

Social Security Paycheck to Increase More than 3 Percent
In 2012, about 55 million Social Security recipients will get an average of 3.6% cost of living adjustment (COLA) after no such increases in 2010 and 2011. The Social Security Administration announced the pay increase on October 19, 2011. In 2009, the COLA was 5.8%, largest in 27 years, due mainly to escalating energy prices in the preceding year (2008). Federal law requires government to compare Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)for the three months of the third quarters (July, August and September) with that of the preceding year. Starting in January 2012, 55 million Social Security recipients will receive a boost of $39 per month, while an additional 8 million Americans will get $18 monthly raise in Supplemental Security Income, the disability program for the poor.

Social Security Disabilities Fund to Run out of Money in 2016
The trustees of Social Security and Medicare program on July 22, 2015 issued an ominous prognosis on Social Security Disabilities Fund that gives, on an average, $1,017 a month to 11 million Americans as disability benefit. According to the report, the disability trust fund will run out of money by the end of 2016, triggering an automatic 19 percent benefit reduction, or $193 per month. However, the larger Social Security Trust Fund has enough money to pay full benefit until 2035, with 75% of benefit to be given after that year. Social Security steps into 80th year in August 2015. President Franklin Roosevelt signed the Social Security Act on August 14, 1935.

No Increase in Social Security Benefit for 2016
Obama administration on October 15, 2015 said that there won't be any cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2016 given low inflation environment. As a result, next year will mark the third time in the entitlement's lifespan without any annual increase after 2010 and 2011. COLA affects 60 million retirees, disabled workers, spouses and children who receive social security benefits, averaging a monthly check of $1,224. In addition to social security beneficiaries, COLA also affects the paycheck of 4 million disabled veterans, 2.5 million federal retirees and their survivors, and more than 8 million people who get Supplemental Security Income, the disability program for the poor.

2.8 Percent Increase in Social Security Pay for 2019 Announced
Trump administration on October 11, 2018 announced a 2.8 percent cost of living adjustment, or COLA, for millions of beneficiaries.

Social Security Funds in a Shaky State
Government overseers of the Social Security Trust Fund issued an ominous warning on April 22, 2019 that gave another 16 years of lease of life to the entitlement program, with Social Security estimated to be broke in 2035. Social Security is the federal government's costliest program, and in 2018, it disbursed an estimated $853 billion to the elderlies and an additional $147 billion in disabilities benefit.

Social Security Benefit to Pay Less a Year Earlier

In a sobering assessment, the trustees for Social Security and Medicare program has released their annual report on August 31, 2021, and for the first time in 39 years, the cost of paying social security benefit will exceed the take-in from payments, interest incomes and other earnings this year. According to the new projection issued August 31, 2021, the benefits will fall below the pledged value beginning 2034, a year earlier than last year's estimate of 2035 when Social Security Trust Fund will stop paying full benefit. 

Social Security Payment to Get the Highest Bump in 39 Years

As the inflation is leaping forward due to supply chain woes and other factors, Social Security Administration on October 13, 2021 announced that an average retiree would receive an additional $92 per month in 2022, amounting to about 5.9% raise. The COLA of 5.9% is the highest in 39 years. The COLA was averaging about 1.65% per year over the last decade. After the increase, the average Social Security recipient will get $1,657 per month and a couple $2,753 per month, an increase of $154. COLA affects 1 in 5 people in the U.S., including disabled people, Social Security recipients and federal retirees, totaling about 70 million people. 

Social Security Trust Fund to Pay Less than Full Benefit Beginning 2033

Social Security Trustees on March 31, 2023 issued the health report on the Social Security Trust Fund, and it's ominous. According to the trustee report, the Social Security Trust Fund will pay 77% of the full benefit starting 2033, a year earlier than last year's estimate. Driving the shortfall are inflation and lackluster economic growth as well as subpar wage growth for the workers in the lower rung of the wage scale. Reflecting the 23% automatic benefit cut that's to take place in a decade if nothing is done, Social Security Acting Commissioner Kilolo Kijakaji said that Congress should "address the projected shortfall". 

Biden Names Former Maryland Governor SSA Administrator 

On July 26, 2023, President Joe Biden named Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley to lead the Social Security Administration. The president said that O'Malley, a two-term governor (2007-2015) and two-term Baltimore mayor, "is a life-long public servant" who would strive for keeping the government services accessible to citizens. 

COLA to Lead Social Security Pay Bump by 3.2%

Social Security Administration on October 12, 2023 announced next year's social security pay increase for the nation's 71 million recipients, including elderly people, people with disabilities and children. Although less than half of this year's increase, a 3.2% pay bump in 2024 will still provide some degree of relief to the recipients, according to the Acting Commissioner Kilolo Kijakaji. 

However, the bump is going to consume the expected raise in Medicare premiums. 

The maximum earnings subjected to Social Security tax are set to increase to $168,600 in 2024 compared to $160,200 now. 

MEDICARE

Efficiency Measures for Medicare Re-imbursements

The Obama administration is planning to introduce "Efficiency Measures", including "Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary", to score hospitals just like the government does now for mortality rates for heart attack patients and infection rates for surgery patients. The initiative, known as Value Based Purchasing, includes benchmarks for scoring and financially rewarding more than 3,100 hospitals:

* Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary during hospital stay, three days prior to it and 90 days afterward.

* This measure, combined with the measure of quality care, will be used to compute performance score of a hospital.

* Based on this performance score, Medicare will re-imburse higher or lower percentage of the claims.

Medicare will start tracking the spending from July 2011, and start rewarding hospitals beginning October 2012. Since 2004, Medicare started to reward hospitals based on quality care, but this is the first time administration is introducing "Efficiency Measures" for paying hospitals.

Source: The Dallas Morning News (May 31, 2011)

Outgoing CMS Chief Laments Waste in Entitlement Programs
The outgoing administrator of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Dr. Donald Berwick, lamented waste in Medicare and Medicaid spending on his last day (December 1, 2011) in office. Dr. Berwick identified five causes that contribute to "extremely high level of waste": (1) Overtreatment of patients; (2) Failure to coordinate care; (3) Administrative complexity of health care system; (4) Burdensome rules; and (5)Fraud. President Obama nominated Dr. Berwick in April 2010. But because of Congressional delay, President Obama made him the administrator through recess appointment.

Medicare Hospital Trust Fund to Last until 2030
The trustees of Social Security and Medicare program on July 22, 2015 said in a report that Medicare's Hospital Fund had enough money to provide desired benefit until 2030.

Medicare to be Depleted in 2026
Medicare and Social Security programs' trustees on June 5, 2018 issued twin ominous reports, giving prognosis of health of:
Medicare Hospital Trust Fund: Estimated year of depletion 2026 compared to 2029 estimated last year
Social Security Trust Fund: Estimated year of depletion 2034

Medicare to Exhaust in 2026
Overseers of Medicare on April 22, 2019 estimated that the program would go broke in 2026. In 2018, Medicare's hospital, outpatient care and prescription drug benefits had a price tag of $740 billion.

Two Ways of Getting Drug Benefits under Medicare (Source: The Dallas Morning News November 27, 2019)

1. Original Medicare Plus Medigap and Medicare Part D
Original Medicare has two elements. Medicare Part A covers the hospital care and limited skilled nursing care. There is no typical monthly premium, but there is an average of $1,364 (based on the figures in 2019) deductibles and co-insurance costs for hospitalization more than 60 days.
Part B covers the doctors' visits, lab procedures, tests and equipment. The standard monthly premium is $135.50. The premiums are taken typically off the monthly social security check. Typically out-of-pocket costs are about 20% of the total bill.
To pay for the out-of-pocket costs for both Part A and Part B, consumers rely on a supplemental policy offered by former employer or a private insurer. It's called Medigap. Medicare Part D provides coverage for prescription drugs.

2. Medicare Advantage
This is all-in-all coverage offered by private insurers that cover Medicare Part A and Medicare Part B as well as drug benefits. On the top, it may offer coverage for vision and dental.

Drug Prices Decline for the First Time
A CMS (Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services) study published on December 5, 2019 shows that drug prices have declined in 2018 for the first time by 1%, mostly due to patients' increasing use of generics and drop in retail prices for some brand names. However, the study, carried out by The Washington Post on December 5, 2019, also shows that total spending on prescriptions has grown by 2.5% to $335 billion.
Total healthcare cost stood at a record high of $3.6 trillion at the end of 2018, a 4.6 percent increase compared with 2017 that has gobbled up about $11,172 per person, or 18% of the U.S. economy

Medicare Depletion Date Remains Unchanged
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees on August 31, 2021 issued the latest annual projection, saying that Medicare fund would be depleted in 2026, unchanged from the last year. 

Medicare Premium to Drop Next Year

Medicare premium is to drop about 3% next year, according to an estimate released by the CMS on September 27, 2022. The premium covers the Part B plan for outpatient and regular doctor visits. This year, Medicare Part B premium jumped by $21.60, partly due to astronomical price of the new intravenously administered Alzheimer's drug Aduhelm. Next year, the Part B premium will fall to $164.90, a decrease of $5.20. With the reduction in Medicare Part B plan's monthly premium along with a significantly high 9% to 10% potential increase in Social Security benefit, country's elderly people will have hundreds of additional dollars in pockets. 

Medicare to Pay Reduced Benefit in Eight Years

Medicare trustees on March 31, 2023 forecasted that Medicare would begin paying 89% of the in-patient hospital procedures, nursing home stays and other Medicare benefits beginning 2031, pushing out the benefit depletion date by three years compared to the last year's projection. The relative good news came as many of the fragile elderly people had lost their lives because of COVID-19 and several in-patient hospital procedures were skipped in favor of less expensive outpatient procedures.

MEDICAID

Trump Administration Proposes Medicaid Rules Overhaul
The head of CMS, Seema Verma, on January 11, 2018 made public the Trump administration's proposed changes to Medicaid benefit rules, requiring the able-bodied beneficiaries to do job or volunteering work.

Indiana Receives Federal Approval for Medicaid Work Requirement
After Kentucky, Indianan received the approval from the federal government on February 2, 2018 for the work requirement to guarantee continuing Medicaid benefit.

Arkansas', Kentucky's Work Requirement Rules Blocked
U.S. District Judge James Boasberg of the Washington D.C. on March 27, 2019 blocked the "work requirements" for Medicaid beneficiaries in Arkansas and Kentucky on the ground that those rules were capricious and might have potential to hurt the recipients of the federal-state program. The judge didn't outright block the "work requirements" per se. Instead, he took aim at how the work requirements were formulated and their adverse impact. 

Biden Administration Rescinds the Trump-era Medicaid Waiver

Biden Administration on April 16, 2021 rescinded the last-minute waiver granted by Trump administration for Medicaid funding, leading to a cloud of uncertainty over more than $100 billion Medicaid funding over the next decade. As the rulesets guiding the state's Medicaid program is set to expire in 2022, the then-CMS Administrator Dr. Seema Verma issued the waiver, known as Medicaid 1115 Waiver, on January 15, 2021, just five days before the change in administration. Ms. Verma at that time justified the pandemic to forego the regular public notice-and comment process. The waiver allows Texas to explore an alternative way of getting Medicaid funding other than going through the expansion of Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. Texas is among the dozen states that has not expanded Medicaid to cover more uninsured under the ACA. The acting administrator of CMS, Liz Richter, wrote to Texas officials on April 16, 2021 that CMS under Dr. Verma "materially erred in granting Texas' request for the exemption from the public notice process". Governor Gregg Abbott criticized the Biden administration's rescinding of the Medicaid 1115 Waiver as the action would put state's $11 billion per year funding in Medicaid at jeopardy and betray "Texans who depend on resources made possible by the waiver". 

CMS Sends Letter to States Take Action on Kids' Coverage Loss due to System Glitch

The Medicaid coverage during the pandemic soared because of the pause in eligibility requirements. The Medicaid roll increased one-third from 71 million in February 2020 to 94 million in April 2023. After the pandemic-era rules lapsed in the Spring of 2023, states began the cumbersome process of the eligibility review. As part of the eligibility review, 5 million people already lost the Medicaid coverage. 

As part of the eligibility review, states are encouraged to automatically check the income thresholds of the families, using income and other data. When that's not enough, state agencies send notices to affected families to verify incomes. When the families fail to respond, "procedural termination" happens. Under normal circumstances, adults may be dropped off the Medicaid roll, but often kids stay back in the Medicaid roll. Because of a "system glitch" the automated renewal mechanism is not working for many of the enrollees in various states and entire families are getting notices for the eligibility proof. When the responses are not forthcoming, the entire families are getting booted out, throwing out millions of children from the Medicaid coverage. CMS sent a letter on August 30, 2023 to the states to assess the automated renewal system. If the states find faults with the automated renewal system, CMS letter advises, they should pause future "procedural termination" and restore the parties affected by the system glitch. Usually children have a lower threshold to meet to retain the Medicaid coverage. 

812K Texas Kids Lose Medicaid Coverage

The Dallas Morning News reported in a front-page article on November 24, 2023 that 1.4 million Texans had lost Medicaid coverage after Pandemic-era automatic enrollment had ended. Out of those 1.4 million disenrollment, about 812,000, or about 58%, are children. Texas has a checkered record of maximum number of uninsured people in the nation. In terms of Medicaid disenrollment numbers, Texas ranked number one in both the total number of people booted out of Medicaid or Children Health Insurance Program and the percentage of children among the total disenrollment. 

There are two types of disenrollment: (A) Procedural disenrollment and (B) Ineligibility-related disenrollment. Procedural disenrollment happens when the beneficiaries fail to carry out appropriate actions to renew the coverage such as failing to return the renewal packets to the state Department of Health and Human Services. During pandemic, auto-enrollment took care of millions of beneficiaries, but auto-enrollment had been phased out after March 31, 2023 in Texas and other states. The percentage of procedural disenrollment varies by states, ranging from 96% in New Mexico, to 68% in Texas, to 7% in Oregon. 

China's Biggest Corn Buy in Overseas Market

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on October 14, 2011 that China had purchased the largest amount of corn in overseas market from the US during Fiscal 2011 as the living standard of Chinese middle class has been rising significantly, people are eating more meat and, as a result, more corns are needed for animal feed. China, a net exporter of corn until 2009, has bought 900,000 metric tons of corn from the USA. According to USDA, Chinese consumption of corn totaled 176 million tons during Fiscal 2011.

CBO Budget Estimates for 2011

Obama administration on October 14, 2011 said that U.S. budget deficit during Fiscal 2011 (October 1, 2010 through September 30, 2011) ran $1.3 trillion, compared to Fiscal 2010 deficit of $1.29 trillion and Fiscal 2009 deficit of $1.41 trillion, respectively.

During Fiscal 2011, the government had to borrow 36 cents for every dollar it spent. Because of huge debt servicing, interest payments on the massive debt has become the single largest growth category in the government spending, running at a 15.7 percent clip to $227 billion during Fiscal 2011.

Medicare Payment Advisory Panel's Recommendations

On October 6, 2011, Medicare Payment Advisory Commission voted 15-2 to abolish the Medicare pay mechanism that had been in place since 1997. Instead of volume of care, the advisory panel emphasized on quality of care. Under the existing law, Medicare reimbursement fees to doctors will drop by 29.5% come January 1, 2012 because of growth in medical expenses and deferred pay cuts supposed to take hold every year since 2003. Repealing the existing fee structures, called the Sustainable Growth Rate, will cost $300 billion over 10 years. That will be offset by:

(I) One-third savings from

(A) Freezing general practitioners' fees

(B) Cutting specialists' fees by 5.9% for three years followed by fee-freeze for the successive seven years


(II) $220 billion savings from higher co-pay and premium.

The panel report, which is issued on October 6, 2011 and preliminary, is critical to both sustainable growth rate and fee-for-service.